Maryland Weather Outlook

Winter in Maryland has been wet and no part of the state is under any drought condition. One month outlook is for 33-50% probability of above normal precipitation and 33-40% probability of above normal temperatures.

Dry weather has persisted this fall and as a result, over 87% of the state is in a drought condition, with the most severe being from parts of Washington County east to Cecil. The one month outlook for precipitation shows slightly above normal probability for the southern half of the state and above normal temperatures for the entire state.

Drought conditions continue to exist in much of the state, with the most severe conditions in Carroll County westward. One month outlook is for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

Drought conditions persist in parts of Maryland, with the most severe conditions existing in Frederick, Carroll, Howard, Montgomery, and Washington counties. The 30-day outlook for temperature is for 40-50% chances of above-normal temperatures and equal chances of above, normal, and below precipitation for the entire state.

Drought conditions exist for a significant proportion of the state, with most severe conditions centered around Frederick, Carroll, Howard, Montgomery, and Washington counties. The one month outlook is for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

85% of the state is under some level of drought, with the most severe conditions ranging from northern Harford county, west across most of Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, and Montgomery counties and extending into portions of Frederick, Anne Arundel, and Prince George’s. Some isolated areas on the Eastern Shore are still not considered droughty, although they are very dry. There’s 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures and precipitation for the month of July for most of the state.

Drought conditions have expanded and worsened in the past month over much of Maryland, with more severe conditions along the I-95 corridor and surrounding Washington DC. There are equal chances for above, normal, and below average temperatures and precipitation for the month of June.

Recent rains have alleviated a lot of dry conditions, but about 53% of the state is still in a deficit. The extended one-month outlook for temperature and precipitation show equal chances of above and below normal for most of the state.

Below-average precipitation for the winter has led to droughty conditions across most of the state south of I-95; although recent storms prior to this report has replenished a lot of soil moisture. The April outlook is for above-average temperatures and equal chances of below, average, and above-average precipitation.

Over 97% of the state is not under any drought condition. November temperatures for the northern counties bordering Pennsylvania are predicted to be 50-60% probability of warmer than normal, with the remainder of the state between 40-50% probability of being warmer than normal. There is a 33-40% probability of below average rainfall for the entire state for the month of November. Long-term 3-month weather outlook predicts equal probability of normal temperatures and precipitation, except for the Eastern Shore, which may experience warmer than normal temperatures into January.

Portions through the center and far southern end of the state are classified as abnormally dry to moderately droughty. There are 50-70% probability of below normal temperatures for October and 33-60% probability of above normal precipitation, with chances increasing as you go south.

Areas in the southern parts of the state are now classified as droughty, mostly southern St. Mary’s, the lower eastern shore, and parts of Caroline and Kent County. One month temperature outlook for September is leaning towards 33-40% chances of above normal temperatures with equal chances of above, normal, and below normal rainfall.

Most of the state is not under any type of official drought condition, except for most of Garrett and Allegany County. Temperatures are predicted to be higher for all of the state for the month of August, with slight chances of above normal precipitation.

The majority of the state is not under any type of drought; however, most of Garret and far western Allegany are considered abnormally dry. The probability for above normal temperatures for July are 40-50% for most of the state, with 33-50% probability of above normal precipitation.
 

Drought conditions have been alleviated in Maryland, with only 6% of the state being abnormally dry, most of which is in St. Mary’s county. The probability for above normal temperatures for June is 33-50%. There is equal probability of above, below, and normal precipitation for June.

As of April 26, 2022, 39.1 % of the state is classified as abnormally dry and 2.8% is under moderate drought. The probability for above normal temperatures for May are 33-40% for most of the state. The entire state has equal chances of above, below, and normal precipitation for the month of May.
 

Central Maryland

Again this month, we've seen scattered rain across the region. However, we've had some good days for wheat and hay harvests. So far, I have not heard of issues with Fusarium head blight at harvest. Double crop beans are going in. No moths have been caught in the fall armyworm or western bean cutworm traps in western Montgomery County. Most of Frederick County is finished with small grain/wheat harvest, with about 70% of double crop acres planted and sprayed. Full season soybeans range from V3-R1, while corn ranges from V4-VT in some places. It appears that marestail got a late start this year outside of the burndown or post-spray window, as many corn and bean fields have 8-10" marestail. Japanese beetles appear to be the most prevalent pest of soybean, low pressure from other insects yet. With warm, wet weather in the near forecast, growers are advised to keep scouting for leaf diseases.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co. and Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.

Most of the state is abnormally dry to moderately droughty; only 11% is not considered dry. Probability for above normal temperatures for April are 33-40%. Areas north and west of I-95 have a 33-40% probability of above normal precipitation, while there are equal probability of above, below, and normal precipitation for the eastern shore and southern Maryland.

Only 2% of the state is considered abnormally dry, in the extreme southern regions of the Eastern Shore. The seasonal temperature outlook for November through January 2022 are leaning 40-50% chances of above normal temperatures and equal chances of above, below, and average precipitation.

Northern Maryland

In general, growing conditions have been great for much of the region, although slightly on the dry side on some of our drier soils; however, nothing dire just yet. A lot of hay was made a couple of weeks ago when we had near perfect weather. Barley harvest wrapped up about a week ago and a significant portion of the wheat crop has been harvested—showers this week has grinded harvest to a halt. I am hearing reports of great yields and great quality. Wheat straw market is still strong enough to make it worth baling instead of leaving it in the field to offset some potash prices. Corn is looking good and earliest planted is in tassel. Soybeans also look good. Overall, pest pressure this year has been low thus far.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper & Mid Shore

Soil moisture has been on the edge of dry, up until a few days ago. Most of the crops are good, but have only been a couple days from drought before another thunderstorm. In the last few days, the region has received numerous storms dropping inches of rain. Corn is tasseling with good soil moisture. The crop is uniform with excellent yield potential and expectations. Soybeans are also off to a great start with group 3’s beginning blooming. Wheat yield was above average and double crop beans are also off to a good start. Good hay was made between thunderstorms at the end of May.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.

As of September 30, 2021, no parts of Maryland are categorized in any type of drought or dry condition. The majority of the state has between a 33-50% chance of above-normal temperatures in October and 33-40% changes of below-normal precipitation.

Most of the state is not considered to be under any drought condition, except for portions are far western Allegany county and all of Garrett. There are equal chances for above, normal, and below-normal temperatures for September. The majority of the state falls between a 70-80% probability of above-average rainfall for the month of September.

Parts of Garrett and Allegany counties are considered abnormally dry, making up 7.5% of the state. The rest of the state is not classified under any drought condition. Rainfall predictions for August place much of the state in the 33-40% probability of above-average precipitation, as well as 33-40% probability of above-normal temperatures.

Recent rains have alleviated drought conditions since the last report; 6.14% of the state is classified as abnormally dry in the mountains of far Western Maryland. There is a 30-40% probability of above-normal rainfall for July and a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures.

Approximately 58% of the state is classified as abnormally dry. The one-month precipitation outlook indicates a 33-40% probability of above-normal rainfall for the month of June and a 50-60% probability of above-normal temperatures.

Nearly all of Garret and portions of Allegany county are classified as abnormally dry; the rest of the state is not under drought conditions. In the northern and western parts of the state, there are equal chances of above, normal, and below-normal temperatures for the month of May, while the southern and eastern shore have between a 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures. Most of the state has between 33-40% chances of above-average precipitation for the month of May.

Currently, 0% of the state is under any drought condition. There is a 40-50% probability of above-normal temperatures for the month of April, as well as a 40-50% probability of above-normal rainfall.