September Grain Market Summary
Information from USDA WASDE report
Corn
2021/22 harvest acres projection was increased by 600,000 acres and yield estimate was increased by 1.7 bushel per acre. The beginning supply estimate was adjusted up 70 million bushel. The net effect of these adjustments on estimated supply was an increase of 316 million bushel. On the demand side, feed & residual estimate was increased by 75 million bushel and export estimate was increased by 75 million bushel. The result of these supply and demand estimates was an increase in ending stocks of 166 million bushels and an increase in the stocks to use ratio from 8.5% to 9.5%. December futures have declined from a high of $5.94 per bushel in August to close at $5.18 today.
Soybeans
2021/22 harvest acres projection was decreased 300,000 acres and yield estimate was increased by 0.6 bushel per acre . The beginning supply estimate was adjusted up 15 million bushel. Imports were adjusted down 10 million bushel. The net effect of these adjustments on estimated supply was an increase of 41 million bushel. Crushings were adjusted down 25 million bushels and exports were adjusted up 35 million bushel. The Net effect of all adjustments was an increase of 30 million bushels in ending stocks and increase in the stocks to use ratio from 3.5% to 4.2 %. November futures prices on June 10 closed at $14.59. November futures trended down from a high of $13.80 in August to close at $12.86 today.
Wheat
There were small adjustments in and demand categories resulting in a net effect of a 50 million bushel decrease in ending stocks decreasing the ending stocks-to-use ratio from 32.1% in August to 29.8%. December futures have followed corn and soybean prices down from a high of $7.87 per bushel in August to close at $6.89 today.
| CORN | Sep. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
| Planted (Million acres) | 93.3 | 92.7 | 90.8 | 89.7 | 88.9 | 90.2 |
| Harvested (Million acres) | 85.1 | 84.5 | 82.5 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 82.7 |
| Bushel yield/harvested acre | 176.3 | 174.6 | 172 | 167.5 | 176.4 | 176.6 |
| SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Beginning stocks | 1,187 | 1,117 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 | 2,293 |
| Production | 14,996 | 14,750 | 14,182 | 13,620 | 14,340 | 14,609 |
| Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 42 | 28 | 36 |
| Supply, total | 16,208 | 15,892 | 16,127 | 15,883 | 16,509 | 16,939 |
| DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Feed and residual | 5,700 | 5,625 | 5,725 | 5,903 | 5,429 | 5,304 |
| Feed % of Production | 38.0% | 38.1% | 40.4% | 43.3% | 37.9% | 36.3% |
| Food, seed & industrial | 6,625 | 6,625 | 6,510 | 6,282 | 6,793 | 7,056 |
| Ethanol for fuel | 5,200 | 5,200 | 5,075 | 4,852 | 5,378 | 5,605 |
| Ethanol % of Production | 34.7% | 35.3% | 35.8% | 35.6% | 37.5% | 38.4% |
| Domestic, total | 12,325 | 12,250 | 12,235 | 12,185 | 12,222 | 12,361 |
| Exports | 2,475 | 2,400 | 2,775 | 1,778 | 2,066 | 2,438 |
| Use total | 14,800 | 14,650 | 15,010 | 13,963 | 14,288 | 14,798 |
| Ending stocks | 1,408 | 1,242 | 1,117 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
| Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
| Average farm price/bushel | $5.45 | $5.75 | $4.40 | $3.56 | $3.61 | $3.36 |
| SOYBEANS | Sep. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
| Planted (Million acres) | 87.2 | 87.6 | 83.1 | 76.1 | 89.2 | 90.2 |
| Harvested (Million acres) | 86.4 | 86.7 | 82.3 | 74.9 | 87.6 | 89.5 |
| Bushel yield/harvested acre | 50.6 | 50 | 50.2 | 47.4 | 50.6 | 49.3 |
| SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Beginning stocks | 175 | 160 | 525 | 909 | 438 | 302 |
| Production | 4,374 | 4,339 | 4,135 | 3,552 | 4,428 | 4,412 |
| Imports | 25 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 22 |
| Supply, total | 4,574 | 4,533 | 4,680 | 4,476 | 4,880 | 4,735 |
| DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Crushings | 2,180 | 2,205 | 2,140 | 2,165 | 2,092 | 2,055 |
| Exports | 2,090 | 2,055 | 2,140 | 2,165 | 2.092 | 2,055 |
| Seed | 104 | 104 | 101 | 96 | 88 | 104 |
| Residual | 14 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 5 |
| Use total | 4,389 | 4,379 | 4,505 | 3,952 | 3,971 | 4,297 |
| Ending stocks | 185 | 155 | 175 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
| Ending stocks to use ratio | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 13.3% | 22.9% | 10.2% |
| Average farm price/bushel | $12.90 | $13.70 | $10.90 | $8.57 | $8.48 | $9.33 |
| WHEAT | Sep. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
| Planted (Million acres) | 46.7 | 46.7 | 44.3 | 45.5 | 47.8 | 46.1 |
| Harvested (Million acres) | 38.1 | 38.1 | 36.7 | 37.4 | 39.6 | 37.6 |
| Bushel yield/harvested acre | 44.5 | 44.5 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 46.4 |
| SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Beginning stocks | 844 | 844 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 | 1,181 |
| Production | 1,697 | 1,697 | 1,826 | 1,932 | 1,885 | 1,741 |
| Imports | 135 | 145 | 100 | 105 | 135 | 158 |
| Supply, total | 2,676 | 2,686 | 2,954 | 3,117 | 3,119 | 3,080 |
| DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
| Food | 964 | 963 | 961 | 962 | 955 | 964 |
| Seed | 62 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 59 | 63 |
| Feed & Residual | 160 | 170 | 97 | 102 | 88 | 47 |
| Domestic, total | 1,186 | 1,195 | 1,119 | 1,123 | 1,102 | 1,075 |
| Exports | 875 | 875 | 992 | 965 | 937 | 906 |
| Use total | 2,061 | 2,070 | 2,110 | 2,089 | 2,039 | 1,981 |
| Ending stocks | 615 | 665 | 844 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
| Ending stocks to use ratio | 29.8% | 32.1% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
| Average farm price/bushel | $6.60 | $6.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 | $4.72 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
This article appears on October 2021, Volume 12, Issue 7 of the Agronomy news.