Stock market data
Updated: December 1, 2023
By Dale Johnson

November 2023

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel.

Soybeans

The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Wheat

The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

 

CORN Nov. Proj. Oct. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 94.9 94.9 88.6 93.3 90.7 89.7
Harvested (Million acres) 87.1 87.1 79.1 85.3 82.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 174.9 173 173.4 176.7 171.4 167.5
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,361 1,361 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221
Production 15,234 15,064 13,715 15,074 14,111 13,620
Imports 25 25 39 24 24 42
Supply, total 16,621 16,451 15,130 16,333 16,055 15,883
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)

Feed and residual

5,650 5,600 5,549 5,726 5,602 5,900
Feed % of Production 37.1% 37.2% 40.5% 38.0% 39.7% 43.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,740 6,715 6,558 6,757 6,472 6,286
Ethanol for fuel 5,325 5,600 5,176 5,320 5,033 4,857
Ethanol % of Production 35.0% 37.2% 37.7% 35.3% 35.7% 35.7%
Domestic, total 12,390 12,315 12,108 12,483 12,704 12,186
Exports 2,075 2,025 1,661 2,471 2,747 1,777
Use total 14,465 14,340 13,769 14,956 14,821 13,963
 
Ending stocks 2,156 2,111 1,361 1,377 1,235 1,919
Ending stocks to use ratio 14.9% 14.7% 9.9% 9.2% 8.3% 13.7%
Average farm price/bushel $4.85 $4.95 $6.54 $6.00 $4.53 $3.56

 

SOYBEANS Nov. Proj. Oct. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/2021 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 83.6 83.6 87.5 87.2 83.4 76.1
Harvested (Million acres) 82.8 82.8 86.2 86.3 82.6 74.9
Bushel yield/harvested acre 49.9 49.6 49.5 51.7 51.0 47.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 268 268 274 257 525 909
Production 4,129 4,104 4,270 4,465 4,216 3,552
Imports 30 30 25 16 20 15
Supply, total 4,428 4,403 4,569 4,738 4,761 4,476
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,300 2,300 2,212 2,204 2,141 2,165
Exports 1,755 1,755 1,992 2,152 2,261 1,682
Seed 101 101 97 102 101 96
Residual 26 27   6 (4) 9
Use total 4,182 4,183 4,301 4,464 4,504 3,952
 
Ending stocks, total 245 220 268 274 257 525
Ending stocks to use ratio 5.9% 5.3% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 13.3%
Average farm price/bushel $12.90 $12.90 $14.20 $13.30 $10.80 $8.57


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Nov. Proj. Oct. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 49.6 49.6 45.7 46.7 44.5 45.5
Harvested (Million acres) 37.3 37.3 35.5 37.1 36.8 37.4
Bushel yield/harvested acre 48.6 48.6 46.5 44.3 49.7 51.7
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 582 582 698 845 1,028 1,080
Production 1,812 1,812 1,650 1,646 1,828 1,932
Imports 145 135 122 96 100 105
Supply, total 2,539 2,529 2,470 2,588 2,957 3,117
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 970 974 973 971 961 962
Seed 65 65 68 58 64 60
Feed & Residual 120 120 89 64 93 102
Domestic, total 1,155 1,159 1,130 1,093 1,117 1,123
Exports 700 700 759 796 994 965
Use total 1,855 1,859 1,888 1,889 2,111 2,089
 
Ending stocks, total 684 670 582 698 845 1,028
Ending stocks to use ratio 36.9% 36.0% 30.8% 37.0% 40.0% 49.2%
Average farm price/bushel $7.20 $7.30 $8.83 $7.63 $5.05 $4.58

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

September 2023

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound. Other changes this month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.

Wheat

The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.

 

CORN Sept. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 94.9 94.1 88.6 93.3 90.7 89.7
Harvested (Million acres) 87.1 86.3 79.2 85.3 82.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 173.8 177.1 173.3 176.7 171.4 167.5
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,452 1,457 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221
Production 15,134 15,111 13,730 15,074 14,111 13,620
Imports 25 25 25 24 24 42
Supply, total 16,611 16,592 15,132 16,333 16,055 15,883
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)

Feed and residual

5,625 5,625 5,425 5,721 5,602 5,900
Feed % of Production 37.2% 37.2% 39.5% 38.0% 39.7% 43.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,715 6,715 6,605 6,764 6,472 6,286
Ethanol for fuel 5,300 5,300 5,195 5,326 5,033 4,857
Ethanol % of Production 35.0% 35.1% 37.8% 35.3% 35.7% 35.7%
Domestic, total 12,340 12,340 12,060 12,484 12,704 12,186
Exports 2,050 2,050 1,655 2,471 2,747 1,777
Use total 14,390 14,390 13,695 14,956 14,821 13,963
 
Ending stocks 2,221 2,202 1,452 1,377 1,235 1,919
Ending stocks to use ratio 15.6% 15.6% 10.6% 9.2% 8.3% 13.7%
Average farm price/bushel $4.90 $4.90 $6.55 $6.00 $4.53 $3.56

 

SOYBEANS Sept. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/2021 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 83.6 83.5 87.5 87.2 83.4 76.1
Harvested (Million acres) 82.8 82.7 86.3 86.3 82.6 74.9
Bushel yield/harvested acre 50.1 50.9 49.5 51.7 51.0 47.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 250 260 274 257 525 909
Production 4,146 4,205 4,276 4,465 4,216 3,552
Imports 30 30 35 16 20 15
Supply, total 4,426 4,496 4,581 4,738 4,761 4,476
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,290 2,300 2,220 2,204 2,141 2,165
Exports 1,790 1,825 1,990 2,158 2,261 1,682
Seed 101 101 97 102 101 96
Residual 25 25 23 1 (4) 9
Use total 4,206 4,251 4,330 4,464 4,504 3,952
 
Ending stocks, total 220 245 250 274 257 525
Ending stocks to use ratio 5.2% 5.8% 5.8% 6.1% 5.7% 13.3%
Average farm price/bushel $12.90 $12.70 $14.20 $13.30 $10.80 $8.57


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Sept. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 49.8 49.8 45.7 46.7 44.5 45.5
Harvested (Million acres) 37.9 37.9 35.5 37.1 36.8 37.4
Bushel yield/harvested acre 45.8 45.8 46.5 44.3 49.7 51.7
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 580 580 698 845 1,028 1,080
Production 1,734 1,734 1,650 1,646 1,828 1,932
Imports 130 130 122 95 100 105
Supply, total 2,444 2,444 2,470 2,587 2,957 3,117
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 974 974 973 972 961 962
Seed 65 65 69 58 64 60
Feed & Residual 90 90 90 59 93 102
Domestic, total 1,129 1,129 1,131 1,088 1,117 1,123
Exports 700 700 759 800 994 965
Use total 1,829 1,829 1,890 1,888 2,111 2,089
 
Ending stocks, total 615 615 580 698 845 1,028
Ending stocks to use ratio 33.6% 33.6% 30.7% 37.0% 40.0% 49.2%
Average farm price/bushel $7.50 $7.50 $8.83 $7.63 $5.05 $4.58

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

August 2023

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for fractionally higher supplies and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022/23 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report is partially offset by a 4.0-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average. However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks. With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

Soybeans

Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4.0 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52.0 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023/24 soybean supplies are reduced 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month.

Wheat

Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.

 

CORN Jul. Proj. Jun. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 94.1 92.0 88.6 93.3 90.7 89.7
Harvested (Million acres) 86.3 84.1 79.2 85.3 82.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177.5 181.5 173.3 176.7 171.4 167.5
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,402 1,452 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221
Production 15,320 15,265 13,730 15,074 14,111 13,620
Imports 25 25 25 24 24 42
Supply, total 16,747 16,742 15,132 16,333 16,055 15,883
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)

Feed and residual

5,650 5,650 5,425 5,721 5,602 5,900
Feed % of Production 36.9% 37.0% 39.5% 38.0% 39.7% 43.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,735 6,735 6,655 6,764 6,472 6,286
Ethanol for fuel 5,300 5,300 5,225 5,326 5,033 4,857
Ethanol % of Production 34.6% 37.7% 38.1% 35.3% 35.7% 35.7%
Domestic, total 12,385 12,385 12,080 12,484 12,704 12,186
Exports 2,100 2,100 1,650 2,471 2,747 1,777
Use total 14,485 14,485 13,730 14,956 14,821 13,963
 
Ending stocks 2,262 2,257 1,402 1,377 1,235 1,919
Ending stocks to use ratio 15.6% 15.6% 10.2% 9.2% 8.3% 13.7%
Average farm price/bushel $4.80 $4.80 $6.60 $6.00 $4.53 $3.56

 

SOYBEANS Jul. Proj. Jun. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/2021 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 83.5 87.5 87.5 87.2 83.4 76.1
Harvested (Million acres) 82.7 86.7 86.3 86.3 82.6 74.9
Bushel yield/harvested acre 52 52 49.5 51.7 51 47.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 255 230 274 257 525 909
Production 4,300 4,510 4,276 4,465 4,216 3,552
Imports 20 20 25 16 20 15
Supply, total 4,575 4,760 4,576 4,738 4,761 4,476
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,300 2,310 2,220 2,204 2,141 2,165
Exports 1,850 1,975 1,980 2,158 2,261 1,682
Seed 101 101 97 102 101 96
Residual 25 25 23 1 (4) 9
Use total 4,276 4,411 4,320 4,464 4,504 3,952
 
Ending stocks, total 300 350 255 274 257 525
Ending stocks to use ratio 7.0% 7.9% 5.9% 6.1% 5.7% 13.3%
Average farm price/bushel $12.40 $12.10 $14.20 $13.30 $10.80 $8.57


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Jul. Proj. Jun. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2023/24 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20
Planted (Million acres) 49.6 49.9 45.7 46.7 44.5 45.5
Harvested (Million acres) 37.7 37.1 35.5 37.1 36.8 37.4
Bushel yield/harvested acre 46.1 44.9 46.5 44.3 49.7 51.7
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 580 598 698 845 1,028 1,080
Production 1,739 1,665 1,650 1,646 1,828 1,932
Imports 130 135 122 95 100 105
Supply, total 2,449 2,399 2,170 2,587 2,957 3,117
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 977 977 975 972 961 962
Seed 65 65 70 58 64 60
Feed & Residual 90 70 86 59 93 102
Domestic, total 1,132 1,112 1,131 1,088 1,117 1,123
Exports 725 725 759 800 994 965
Use total 1,857 1,837 1,890 1,888 2,111 2,089
 
Ending stocks, total 592 562 580 698 845 1,028
Ending stocks to use ratio 31.9% 30.6% 30.7% 37.0% 40.0% 49.2%
Average farm price/bushel $7.50 $7.70 $8.83 $7.63 $5.05 $4.58

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

May 2023 Grain Market Report

Corn

The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield. The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period. With beginning stocks up slightly, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is forecast to rise about 5% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is projected to rise 55 million bushels to 6.7 billion. Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase 1%, based on expectations of modest growth in motor gasoline consumption and ethanol’s inclusion rate into gasoline. Feed and residual use is projected higher on a larger crop and lower expected prices. U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23. U.S. market share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past 5 years. Exports are higher for Argentina and Brazil, with the former reflecting a return to normal weather conditions after a drought during 2022/23. Despite a rebound in U.S. exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year. Exports for Ukraine are projected to decline based on lower production prospects. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2023/24 ending stocks are up 805 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2016/17. Stocks would represent 15.3% of use, the highest since 2018/19. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.80 per bushel, down $1.80 from 2022/23.

Soybeans

The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. With lower beginning stocks partly offsetting increased production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.75 billion bushels, up 4% from 2022/23. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 132.8 million tons, up 6.9 million from 2022/23 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola, peanuts, and cottonseed. The U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the 2022/23 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2% from 2022/23 on lower soybean meal prices and modest growth primarily in poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.8 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade slightly above the prior 5-year average. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/23 with strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand. U.S. ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 335 million bushels, up 120 million from the revised 2022/23 forecast. Soybean and product prices are all forecast lower for 2023/24. The 2023/24 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel compared with $14.20 per bushel in 2022/23.

Wheat

The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/23. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The all wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8 bushels lower than last year. The first survey-based production forecast for 2023/24 winter wheat is up 2%from last year as higher Soft Red Winter production more than offsets a decline in Hard Red Winter and White wheat. Total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1% from last year, primarily on increased feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million lower than last year. Ending stocks are projected 11% lower than last year and the lowest in 16 years. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is $8.00 per bushel, down $0.85 from last year’s record.

 

CORN May. Proj. Est.        
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2021/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 92.0 88.6 93.3 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 84.1 79.2 85.3 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 181.5 173.3 176.7 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,417 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 13,730 13,730 15,074 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 40 24 24 42 28
Supply, total 16,707 15,147 16,333 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,650 5,275 5,715 5,602 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 37.0% 38.4% 37.9% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,735 6,680 6,767 6,472 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,300 5,250 5,326 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 34.7% 38.2% 35.3% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,385 11,955 12,484 12,704 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,100 1,775 2,471 2,747 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,485 13,730 14,926 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 2,222 1,417 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 15.3% 10.3% 9.2% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $4.80 $6.60 $6.00 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS May. Proj. Est.        
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 87.5 87.5 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.6 86.6 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 52.0 49.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 215 274 257 525 909 438
Production 4,510 4,276 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 20 20 16 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,745 4,571 4,738 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,310 2,220 2,204 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 1,975 2.015 2,158 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 101 102 102 101 96 88
Residual 25 19 2 (4) 9 39
Use total 4,411 4,355 4,465 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks, total 355 215 274 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 7.6% 4.9% 6.1% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.30 $14.20 $13.30 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT May. Proj. Est.        
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 49.9 45.7 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.1 35.5 37.1 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 44.7 46.5 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 598 698 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,659 1,650 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 135 125 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,393 2,473 2,587 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 977 975 972 961 962 955
Seed 65 70 58 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 70 80 59 93 102 88
Domestic, total 1,112 1,100 1,088 1,117 1,123 1,102
Exports 725 775 800 994 965 937
Use total 1,837 1,875 1,888 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks, total 556 598 698 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 30.3% 31.9% 37.0% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $8.00 $8.85 $7.63 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

October 2022 Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021/22. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are cut 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80.

Soybeans

Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, down 35 cents.

Wheat

U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower ‘22/23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year. Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983/84. Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72. Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.

 

CORN Oct. Proj. Sept. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 88.6 88.6 93.3 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 80.8 80.6 85.3 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 172.5 172.5 176.7 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,377 1,525 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 13,895 13,944 15,074 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 50 25 24 24 42 28
Supply, total 15,255 15,494 16,333 16,3055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,275 5,225 5,715 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 38.0% 37.5% 37.9% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,725 6,755 6,769 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,275 5,325 5,328 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 38.0% 38.5% 35.3% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,000 12,000 12,484 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,150 2,275 2,471 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,150 14,275 14,956 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,172 1,219 1,377 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 6.8% 6.8% 9.2% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.80 $6.75 $6.00 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS Oct. Proj. Sept. Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 87.5 87.5 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.6 86.6 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 49.8 50.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 274 240 257 525 909 438
Production 4,313 4,375 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 16 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,602 4,633 4,738 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,235 2,225 2,204 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2,045 2.085 2,158 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 102 102 101 96 88
Residual 20 21 2 1 9 39
Use total 4,402 4,433 4,465 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks, total 200 245 274 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 4.5% 4.5% 6.1% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.00 $14.35 $13.30 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Sept. Proj. Sept. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 45.7 47.0 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.5 37.5 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 46.5 47.5 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 669 660 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,650 1,783 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 120 110 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,439 2,553 2,587 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 970 970 972 961 962 955
Seed 68 68 60 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 50 80 86 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,088 1,118 1,117 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 775 825 800 992 965 937
Use total 1,863 1,943 1,917 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks, total 576 610 669 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 30.9% 31.4% 34.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $9.20 $9.05 $7.63 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

September Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million. Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is up 10 cents to $6.75.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production.

Wheat

Wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.

 

CORN Sept. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 88.6 89.8 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 80.6 81.8 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 172.5 175.4 177 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,525 1,530 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 13,944 14,359 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 25 25 24 42 28
Supply, total 15,494 15,913 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,225 4,325 5,625 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 37.5% 30.1% 37.2% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,755 6,825 6,810 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,325 5,375 5,375 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 38.5% 37.4% 35.6% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,000 12,150 12,415 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,275 2,375 2,450 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,275 14,525 14,865 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,219 1,388 1,510 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 6.8% 9.6% 10.2% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.75 $6.65 $5.95 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS Sept. Proj. Aug Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 87.5 88.0 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.6 87.2 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 50.5 51.9 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 240 225 257 525 909 438
Production 4,375 4,531 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 15 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,633 4,771 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,225 2,245 2,205 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2.085 2,155 2,170 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 102 103 101 96 88
Residual 21 24 15 1 9 39
Use total 4,433 4,526 4,492 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks, total 200 245 215 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 4.5% 5.4% 4.8% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.35 $14.35 $13.35 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Sept. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 47.0 47.0 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.5 37.5 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 47.5 47.5 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 660 660 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,783 1,783 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 110 110 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,553 2,553 2,586 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 970 970 962 961 962 955
Seed 68 68 64 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 80 80 100 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,118 1,118 1,126 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 825 825 805 992 965 937
Use total 1,943 1,943 1,931 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks, total 610 610 655 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 31.4% 31.4% 33.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $9.00 $9.25 $7.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

August 2022 Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged. Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports. Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre is raised 0.4 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million.

 

CORN Aug. Proj. Jul. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 89.8 89.9 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 81.8 81.9 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 175.4 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,530 1,510 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 14,359 14,505 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 25 25 24 42 28
Supply, total 15,913 16,040 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 4,325 5,350 5,625 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 30.1 36.9% 37.2% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,825 6,820 6,810 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,375 5,350 5,375 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 37.4 36.9% 35.6% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,150 12,170 12,415 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,375 2,400 2,450 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,525 14,570 14,865 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,388 1,470 1,510 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.6% 10.1% 10.2% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.65 $6.65 $5.95 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS Aug Proj. Jul. Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 88.0 88.3 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 87.2 87.5 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.9 51.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 225 215 257 525 909 438
Production 4,531 4.505 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 15 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,771 4,735 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,245 2,245 2,205 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2,155 2,135 2,170 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 102 103 101 96 88
Residual 24 23 15 1 9 39
Use total 4,526 4,505 4,492 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks 245 230 215 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.35 $14.40 $13.35 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Aug. Proj. July Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 47.0 47.1 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.5 37.6 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 47.5 47.3 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 660 660 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,783 1,781 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 110 110 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,553 2,551 2,586 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 970 964 962 961 962 955
Seed 68 68 64 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 80 80 100 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,118 1,112 1,126 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 825 800 805 992 965 937
Use total 1,943 1,912 1,931 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks 610 639 655 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 31.4% 33.4% 33.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $9.25 $10.50 $7.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

July 2022 Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

Corn beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021/22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels. The ending stocks-to-use ratio increased from 9.6% to 10.1%.

Soybeans

Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage Report, is down 2.6 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022/23 soybean supplies are reduced 125 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies, and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The ending stock-to-use ratio is down to 5.1% from 6.1% estimated last month.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area. The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices. The ending stock-use-ratio is 33.4% up slightly from 33.3% last month.

 

CORN Jul. Proj. Jun. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 89.9 89.5 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 81.9 81.7 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,510 1,485 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 14,505 14,460 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 25 25 24 42 28
Supply, total 16,040 15,970 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,350 5,350 5,625 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 36.9% 37.0% 37.2% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,820 6,820 6,810 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,350 5,375 5,375 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 36.9% 37.2% 35.6% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,170 12,170 12,415 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,400 2,400 2,450 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,570 14,570 14,865 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,470 1,400 1,510 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 10.1% 9.6% 10.2% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.65 $6.75 $5.95 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS Jul. Proj. June Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 88.3 91.0 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 87.5 90.1 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.5 51.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 215 205 257 525 909 438
Production 4.505 4,640 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 15 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,735 4,860 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,245 2,255 2,205 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2,135 2,200 2,170 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 102 103 101 96 88
Residual 23 23 15 1 9 39
Use total 4,505 4,580 4,492 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks 230 280 215 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.40 $14.70 $13.35 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT July Proj. June Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 47.1 47.4 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.6 37.1 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 47.3 46.9 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 660 655 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,781 1,737 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 110 120 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,551 2,512 2,586 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 964 964 962 961 962 955
Seed 68 66 64 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 80 80 100 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,112 1,110 1,126 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 800 775 805 992 965 937
Use total 1,912 1,885 1,931 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks 639 627 655 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 33.4% 33.3% 33.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $10.50 $10.75 $7.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

June 2022 Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage Report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021/22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022/23. With no other 2022/23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel.

Soybeans

This month’s projections for 2022/23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices. Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021/22. Soybean exports for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil. With reduced supplies for 2022/23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22.

 

CORN Jun. Proj. May. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 89.5 89.5 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 81.7 81.7 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,485 1,440 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 14,460 14,460 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 25 25 24 42 28
Supply, total 15,970 15,925 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,350 5,350 5,625 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 37.0% 37.0% 37.2% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,820 6,815 6,810 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,375 5,375 5,375 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 37.2% 37.2% 35.6% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,170 12,165 12,435 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,400 2,400 2,500 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,570 14,565 14,935 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,400 1,360 1,440 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.6% 9.3% 9.6% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.75 $6.75 $5.90 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS June Proj. May Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2021/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 91.0 91.0 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 90.1 90.1 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.5 51.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 205 235 257 525 909 438
Production 4,640 4,640 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 15 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,860 4,890 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,255 2,255 2,215 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2,200 2,200 2,140 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 102 106 101 96 88
Residual 23 23 12 1 9 39
Use total 4,580 4,580 4,472 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks 280 310 235 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 6.1% 6.8% 5.3% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.70 $14.40 $13.25 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT June Proj. May Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2021/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 47.4 47.4 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.1 37.1 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 46.9 46.6 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 655 655 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,737 1,729 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 120 120 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,512 2,504 2,586 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 964 964 962 961 962 955
Seed 66 66 64 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 80 80 100 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,110 1,110 1,126 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 775 775 805 992 965 937
Use total 1,885 1,885 1,931 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks 627 619 655 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 33.3% 32.8% 33.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $10.75 $10.75 $7.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

May 2022 Grain Market Report

Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report

Corn

The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is virtually unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption. Corn feed and residual use is down 4.9 percent relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers, and a decline in grain consuming animal units. U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.

Soybeans

The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021/22. The soybean crop is projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher harvested area. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.89 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2021/22. The U.S. soybean crush for 2022/23 is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021/22 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2021/22 with low soybean meal prices relative to corn. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade near the prior 5-year average. With increased supplies, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million from the revised 2021/22 projection. Despite reduced soybean supplies available for export from South America for the first half of the 2022/23 marketing year, an anticipated record harvest and sharply higher exports beginning in early 2023 is expected to leave the U.S. with a lower share of global trade in 2022/23. U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 310 million bushels, up 75 million from the revised 2021/22 forecast. The 2022/23 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.40 per bushel compared with $13.25 per bushel in 2021/22. Soybean meal prices are forecast down $20 per short ton from 2021/22 to $400 per short ton and soybean oil prices are forecast down 5 cents to average 70 cents per pound, as oilseed and product supplies rebound in foreign markets.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area. The all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8 percent from last year as lower Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offset an increase in White Wheat production. Abandonment for Winter Wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma. Spring Wheat production for 2022/23 is projected to rebound significantly from last year’s drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields. Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1 percent on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are 6 percent lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised SAFP. Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed.

 

CORN May. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 89.5 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9
Harvested (Million acres) 81.7 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,440 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Production 14,460 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340
Imports 25 25 24 42 28
Supply, total 15,925 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,350 5,625 5,598 5,900 5,429
Feed % of Production 37.0% 37.2% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9%
Food, seed & industrial 6,815 6,810 6,470 6,286 6,793
Ethanol for fuel 5,375 5,375 5,033 4,857 5,378
Ethanol % of Production 37.2% 35.6% 35.7% 35.7% 37.5%
Domestic, total 12,165 12,435 12,068 12,186 12,222
Exports 2,400 2,500 2,753 1,777 2,066
Use total 14,565 14,935 14,821 13,963 14,288
 
Ending stocks 1,360 1,440 1,235 1,919 2,221
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.3% 9.6% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.75 $5.90 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61

 

SOYBEANS May Proj. Est      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 91.0 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2
Harvested (Million acres) 90.1 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.5 51.4 51 47.4 50.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 235 257 525 909 438
Production 4,640 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428
Imports 15 15 20 15 14
Supply, total 4,890 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,255 2,215 2,141 2,165 2,092
Exports 2,200 2,140 2,261 1,682 1,752
Seed 102 106 101 96 88
Residual 23 12 1 9 39
Use total 4,580 4,472 4,504 3,952 3,971
 
Ending stocks 310 235 257 525 909
Ending stocks to use ratio 6.8% 5.3% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9%
Average farm price/bushel $14.40 $13.25 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT May Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
Planted (Million acres) 47.4 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8
Harvested (Million acres) 37.1 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 46.6 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 655 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Production 1,729 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885
Imports 120 95 100 105 135
Supply, total 2,504 2,586 2,957 3,117 3,119
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 964 962 961 962 955
Seed 66 64 64 60 59
Feed & Residual 80 100 95 102 88
Domestic, total 1,110 1,126 1,120 1,123 1,102
Exports 775 805 992 965 937
Use total 1,885 1,931 2,111 2,089 2,039
 
Ending stocks 619 655 845 1,028 1,080
Ending stocks to use ratio 32.8% 33.9% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0%
Average farm price/bushel $10.75 $7.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

April 2022 Grain Market Report

Information from USDA WASDE report

Corn

There were no changes on the corn supply side from the March 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, there were minor changes but total use and Ending stocks remained the same.  Ending stocks are estimated to be 1,440 million bushel, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.6%. December 2022 Corn futures remain in a bullish volatile market with prices increasing  from $6.37 on March 9 to a high of $7.18 on April 8 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up. A lower than expected prospective plantings report on March 31 pegged planting at 89.5 million contributed to higher prices for the 2022 crop year.

Soybeans

There were no changes on the soybean supply side from the March 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, export estimates were increased by 25 million bushel, seed was increased by 4 million bushel and the residual estimate was decreased by 3 million bushel. This resulted in a lower estimate of ending stocks at 260 million bushel and a decrease in the stocks-to-use ratio from 6.4% to 5.8%. November 2022 futures prices have been volatile the past month  A higher than expected prospective plantings report on March 31 pegged planting at 91 million contributed to a price dip but has since recovered to a high of $14.98 on April 8.

Wheat

On the supply side, import estimates were decreased by 5 million bushel. On the demand side, Feed & Residual was decreased 10 million bushel. Export estimate was decrease by 25 million bushel.  These changes increased the ending stocks by 30 million bushel to 678 million bushel and the stocks to use ratio increased from 33.4% to 35.5%. On March 3 & 7, the market was limit up as trading was halted on those days. The market then went limit down on March 8, 9 , & 10. On March 9 &10 there was no trading. The market has declined since then from the $12.50 range to a high of $10.60 on April 8.

 

CORN April. Proj. Feb. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 93.4 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 85.4 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3 82.7
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4 176.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,235 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140 2,293
Production 15,115 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340 14,609
Imports 25 25 24 42 28 36
Supply, total 16,375 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509 16,939
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,650 5,650 5,602 5,900 5,429 5,304
Feed % of Production 37.2% 37.4% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9% 36.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,810 6,785 6,466 6,286 6,793 7,056
Ethanol for fuel 5,375 5,350 5,028 4,857 5,378 5,605
Ethanol % of Production 35.6% 35.4% 35.6% 35.7% 37.5% 38.4%
Domestic, total 12,435 12,435 12,068 12,186 12,222 12,361
Exports 2,500 2,500 2,753 1,777 2,066 2,438
Use total 14,935 14,935 14,821 13,963 14,288 14,798
 
Ending stocks 1,440 1,440 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.6% 9.6% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5% 14.5%
Average farm price/bushel $5.80 $5.65 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61 $3.36

 

SOYBEANS April Proj. Mar. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 87.2 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.3 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6 89.5
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.4 51.4 51 47.4 50.6 49.3
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 257 257 525 909 438 302
Production 4,435 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428 4,412
Imports 15 15 20 15 14 22
Supply, total 4,707 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880 4,735
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,215 2,215 2,141 2,165 2,092 2,055
Exports 2,115 2,090 2,265 1,682 1,752 2,134
Seed 106 102 101 96 88 104
Residual 12 15 (4) 9 39 5
Use total 4,447 4,422 4,504 3,952 3,971 4,297
 
Ending stocks 260 285 257 525 909 438
Ending stocks to use ratio 5.8% 6.4% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9% 10.2%
Average farm price/bushel $13.25 $13.25 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48 $9.33


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT April Proj. Mar. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 46.7 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8 46.1
Harvested (Million acres) 37.2 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6 37.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 44.3 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6 46.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 845 845 1,028 1,080 1,099 1,181
Production 1,646 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885 1,741
Imports 95 100 100 105 135 158
Supply, total 2,586 2,591 2,957 3,117 3,119 3,080
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 959 959 961 962 955 964
Seed 64 64 64 60 59 63
Feed & Residual 110 110 95 102 88 47
Domestic, total 1,123 1,133 1,120 1,123 1,102 1,075
Exports 785 810 992 965 937 906
Use total 1,908 1,943 2,111 2,089 2,039 1,981
 
Ending stocks 678 648 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Ending stocks to use ratio 35.5% 33.4% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0% 55.5%
Average farm price/bushel $7.60 $7.30 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16 $4.72

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

March 2022 Grain Market Report

Information from USDA WASDE report

Corn

There were no changes on the corn supply side from the February 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, ethanol estimates increased 25 million bushel and esports increased 75 million bushel for a total demand increase of 100 million bushel. Ending stocks are estimated to be 1,440 million bushel, decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio from 10.4% in February to 9.6% in March. March 2022 Corn futures increased from $6.47 on February 9 to peak at $8.00 on March 4 and settle back to $7.45 March 9 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up.

Soybeans

There were no changes on the soybean supply side from the February 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, export estimates were increased by 40 million bushel and the residual estimate was decreased by 1 million bushel. This resulted in a lower estimate of ending stocks at 285 million bushel and a decrease in the stocks-to-use ratio from 7.4% to 6.4%. March 2022 futures price increased dramatically from $15.95 on February 9 to peak at $17.65 on February 24 and settle back to $16.87 on February 9 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up.

Wheat

On the supply side, import estimates were decreased by 5 million bushel. On the demand side, export estimates were decreased 10 million bushel. These changes increased the ending stocks by 5 million bushel to 653 million bushel and the stocks to use ratio increased from 33.4% to 33.8%. However, extraordinary world events drove March futures from $7.85 on February 9 to peak at 14.25 on March 7. On March 3 & 7, the market was limit up as trading was halted on those days. The market then went limit down on March 8, 9 , & 10. On March 9 &10 there was no trading. The market went limit down at the opening. On March 11 the market closed at $10.90 after the wildest ride in history.

 

CORN Mar. Proj. Feb. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 93.4 93.4 90.7 89.7 88.9 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 85.4 85.4 82.3 81.3 81.3 82.7
Bushel yield/harvested acre 177 177 171.4 167.5 176.4 176.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,235 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140 2,293
Production 15,115 15,115 14,111 13,620 14,340 14,609
Imports 25 25 24 42 28 36
Supply, total 16,375 16,375 16,055 15,883 16,509 16,939
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,650 5,650 5,602 5,900 5,429 5,304
Feed % of Production 37.4% 37.4% 39.7% 43.3% 37.9% 36.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,785 6,760 6,466 6,286 6,793 7,056
Ethanol for fuel 5,350 5,325 5,028 4,857 5,378 5,605
Ethanol % of Production 35.4% 35.2% 35.6% 35.7% 37.5% 38.4%
Domestic, total 12,435 12,410 12,068 12,186 12,222 12,361
Exports 2,500 2,425 2,753 1,777 2,066 2,438
Use total 14,935 14,835 14,821 13,963 14,288 14,798
 
Ending stocks 1,440 1,540 1,235 1,919 2,221 2,140
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.6% 10.4% 8.3% 13.7% 15.5% 14.5%
Average farm price/bushel $5.65 $5.45 $4.53 $3.56 $3.61 $3.36

 

SOYBEANS Mar. Proj. Feb. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 87.2 87.2 83.4 76.1 89.2 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.3 86.3 82.6 74.9 87.6 89.5
Bushel yield/harvested acre 51.4 51.4 51 47.4 50.6 49.3
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 257 257 525 909 438 302
Production 4,435 4,435 4,216 3,552 4,428 4,412
Imports 15 15 20 15 14 22
Supply, total 4,707 4,707 4,761 4,476 4,880 4,735
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,215 2,215 2,141 2,165 2,092 2,055
Exports 2,090 2,050 2,265 1,682 1,752 2,134
Seed 102 102 101 96 88 104
Residual 15 16 (4) 9 39 5
Use total 4,422 4,382 4,504 3,952 3,971 4,297
 
Ending stocks 285 325 257 525 909 438
Ending stocks to use ratio 6.4% 7.4% 5.7% 13.3% 22.9% 10.2%
Average farm price/bushel $13.25 $13.00 $10.80 $8.57 $8.48 $9.33


Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31

 

WHEAT Mar.Proj. Feb. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 46.7 46.7 44.5 45.5 47.8 46.1
Harvested (Million acres) 37.2 37.2 36.8 37.4 39.6 37.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 44.3 44.3 49.7 51.7 47.6 46.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 845 845 1,028 1,080 1,099 1,181
Production 1,646 1,646 1,828 1,932 1,885 1,741
Imports 95 100 100 105 135 158
Supply, total 2,586 2,591 2,957 3,117 3,119 3,080
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 959 959 961 962 955 964
Seed 64 64 64 60 59 63
Feed & Residual 110 110 95 102 88 47
Domestic, total 1,133 1,133 1,120 1,123 1,102 1,075
Exports 800 810 992 965 937 906
Use total 1,933 1,943 2,111 2,089 2,039 1,981
 
Ending stocks 653 648 845 1,028 1,080 1,099
Ending stocks to use ratio 33.8% 33.4% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0% 55.5%
Average farm price/bushel $7.50 $7.30 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16 $4.72

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

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Agronomy News is a statewide newsletter for farmers, consultants, researchers, and educators interested in grain and row crop forage production systems. This newsletter is published once a month during the growing season and will include topics pertinent to agronomic crop production. Subscribers will receive an email with the latest edition.

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