November 2023
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel.
Soybeans
The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
Wheat
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
CORN | Nov. Proj. | Oct. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 94.9 | 94.9 | 88.6 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 89.7 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 87.1 | 87.1 | 79.1 | 85.3 | 82.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 174.9 | 173 | 173.4 | 176.7 | 171.4 | 167.5 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,361 | 1,361 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Production | 15,234 | 15,064 | 13,715 | 15,074 | 14,111 | 13,620 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 39 | 24 | 24 | 42 |
Supply, total | 16,621 | 16,451 | 15,130 | 16,333 | 16,055 | 15,883 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual |
5,650 | 5,600 | 5,549 | 5,726 | 5,602 | 5,900 |
Feed % of Production | 37.1% | 37.2% | 40.5% | 38.0% | 39.7% | 43.3% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,740 | 6,715 | 6,558 | 6,757 | 6,472 | 6,286 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,325 | 5,600 | 5,176 | 5,320 | 5,033 | 4,857 |
Ethanol % of Production | 35.0% | 37.2% | 37.7% | 35.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
Domestic, total | 12,390 | 12,315 | 12,108 | 12,483 | 12,704 | 12,186 |
Exports | 2,075 | 2,025 | 1,661 | 2,471 | 2,747 | 1,777 |
Use total | 14,465 | 14,340 | 13,769 | 14,956 | 14,821 | 13,963 |
Ending stocks | 2,156 | 2,111 | 1,361 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 14.9% | 14.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% |
Average farm price/bushel | $4.85 | $4.95 | $6.54 | $6.00 | $4.53 | $3.56 |
SOYBEANS | Nov. Proj. | Oct. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/2021 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 83.6 | 83.6 | 87.5 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 82.8 | 82.8 | 86.2 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 49.9 | 49.6 | 49.5 | 51.7 | 51.0 | 47.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 268 | 268 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Production | 4,129 | 4,104 | 4,270 | 4,465 | 4,216 | 3,552 |
Imports | 30 | 30 | 25 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
Supply, total | 4,428 | 4,403 | 4,569 | 4,738 | 4,761 | 4,476 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,212 | 2,204 | 2,141 | 2,165 |
Exports | 1,755 | 1,755 | 1,992 | 2,152 | 2,261 | 1,682 |
Seed | 101 | 101 | 97 | 102 | 101 | 96 |
Residual | 26 | 27 | 6 | (4) | 9 | |
Use total | 4,182 | 4,183 | 4,301 | 4,464 | 4,504 | 3,952 |
Ending stocks, total | 245 | 220 | 268 | 274 | 257 | 525 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% |
Average farm price/bushel | $12.90 | $12.90 | $14.20 | $13.30 | $10.80 | $8.57 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Nov. Proj. | Oct. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 49.6 | 49.6 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.3 | 37.3 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 36.8 | 37.4 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 48.6 | 48.6 | 46.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 582 | 582 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Production | 1,812 | 1,812 | 1,650 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 |
Imports | 145 | 135 | 122 | 96 | 100 | 105 |
Supply, total | 2,539 | 2,529 | 2,470 | 2,588 | 2,957 | 3,117 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 970 | 974 | 973 | 971 | 961 | 962 |
Seed | 65 | 65 | 68 | 58 | 64 | 60 |
Feed & Residual | 120 | 120 | 89 | 64 | 93 | 102 |
Domestic, total | 1,155 | 1,159 | 1,130 | 1,093 | 1,117 | 1,123 |
Exports | 700 | 700 | 759 | 796 | 994 | 965 |
Use total | 1,855 | 1,859 | 1,888 | 1,889 | 2,111 | 2,089 |
Ending stocks, total | 684 | 670 | 582 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 36.9% | 36.0% | 30.8% | 37.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% |
Average farm price/bushel | $7.20 | $7.30 | $8.83 | $7.63 | $5.05 | $4.58 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
September 2023
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.
Soybeans
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound. Other changes this month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.
Wheat
The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.
CORN | Sept. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 94.9 | 94.1 | 88.6 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 89.7 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 87.1 | 86.3 | 79.2 | 85.3 | 82.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 173.8 | 177.1 | 173.3 | 176.7 | 171.4 | 167.5 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,452 | 1,457 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Production | 15,134 | 15,111 | 13,730 | 15,074 | 14,111 | 13,620 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 42 |
Supply, total | 16,611 | 16,592 | 15,132 | 16,333 | 16,055 | 15,883 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual |
5,625 | 5,625 | 5,425 | 5,721 | 5,602 | 5,900 |
Feed % of Production | 37.2% | 37.2% | 39.5% | 38.0% | 39.7% | 43.3% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,715 | 6,715 | 6,605 | 6,764 | 6,472 | 6,286 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,300 | 5,300 | 5,195 | 5,326 | 5,033 | 4,857 |
Ethanol % of Production | 35.0% | 35.1% | 37.8% | 35.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
Domestic, total | 12,340 | 12,340 | 12,060 | 12,484 | 12,704 | 12,186 |
Exports | 2,050 | 2,050 | 1,655 | 2,471 | 2,747 | 1,777 |
Use total | 14,390 | 14,390 | 13,695 | 14,956 | 14,821 | 13,963 |
Ending stocks | 2,221 | 2,202 | 1,452 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 15.6% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% |
Average farm price/bushel | $4.90 | $4.90 | $6.55 | $6.00 | $4.53 | $3.56 |
SOYBEANS | Sept. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/2021 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 83.6 | 83.5 | 87.5 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 82.8 | 82.7 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 50.1 | 50.9 | 49.5 | 51.7 | 51.0 | 47.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 250 | 260 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Production | 4,146 | 4,205 | 4,276 | 4,465 | 4,216 | 3,552 |
Imports | 30 | 30 | 35 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
Supply, total | 4,426 | 4,496 | 4,581 | 4,738 | 4,761 | 4,476 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,290 | 2,300 | 2,220 | 2,204 | 2,141 | 2,165 |
Exports | 1,790 | 1,825 | 1,990 | 2,158 | 2,261 | 1,682 |
Seed | 101 | 101 | 97 | 102 | 101 | 96 |
Residual | 25 | 25 | 23 | 1 | (4) | 9 |
Use total | 4,206 | 4,251 | 4,330 | 4,464 | 4,504 | 3,952 |
Ending stocks, total | 220 | 245 | 250 | 274 | 257 | 525 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% |
Average farm price/bushel | $12.90 | $12.70 | $14.20 | $13.30 | $10.80 | $8.57 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Sept. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 49.8 | 49.8 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.9 | 37.9 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 36.8 | 37.4 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 45.8 | 45.8 | 46.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 580 | 580 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Production | 1,734 | 1,734 | 1,650 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 |
Imports | 130 | 130 | 122 | 95 | 100 | 105 |
Supply, total | 2,444 | 2,444 | 2,470 | 2,587 | 2,957 | 3,117 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 974 | 974 | 973 | 972 | 961 | 962 |
Seed | 65 | 65 | 69 | 58 | 64 | 60 |
Feed & Residual | 90 | 90 | 90 | 59 | 93 | 102 |
Domestic, total | 1,129 | 1,129 | 1,131 | 1,088 | 1,117 | 1,123 |
Exports | 700 | 700 | 759 | 800 | 994 | 965 |
Use total | 1,829 | 1,829 | 1,890 | 1,888 | 2,111 | 2,089 |
Ending stocks, total | 615 | 615 | 580 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 33.6% | 33.6% | 30.7% | 37.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% |
Average farm price/bushel | $7.50 | $7.50 | $8.83 | $7.63 | $5.05 | $4.58 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
August 2023
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for fractionally higher supplies and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022/23 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report is partially offset by a 4.0-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average. However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks. With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Soybeans
Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4.0 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52.0 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023/24 soybean supplies are reduced 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month.
Wheat
Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.
CORN | Jul. Proj. | Jun. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 94.1 | 92.0 | 88.6 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 89.7 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.3 | 84.1 | 79.2 | 85.3 | 82.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177.5 | 181.5 | 173.3 | 176.7 | 171.4 | 167.5 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,402 | 1,452 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Production | 15,320 | 15,265 | 13,730 | 15,074 | 14,111 | 13,620 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 42 |
Supply, total | 16,747 | 16,742 | 15,132 | 16,333 | 16,055 | 15,883 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual |
5,650 | 5,650 | 5,425 | 5,721 | 5,602 | 5,900 |
Feed % of Production | 36.9% | 37.0% | 39.5% | 38.0% | 39.7% | 43.3% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,735 | 6,735 | 6,655 | 6,764 | 6,472 | 6,286 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,300 | 5,300 | 5,225 | 5,326 | 5,033 | 4,857 |
Ethanol % of Production | 34.6% | 37.7% | 38.1% | 35.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
Domestic, total | 12,385 | 12,385 | 12,080 | 12,484 | 12,704 | 12,186 |
Exports | 2,100 | 2,100 | 1,650 | 2,471 | 2,747 | 1,777 |
Use total | 14,485 | 14,485 | 13,730 | 14,956 | 14,821 | 13,963 |
Ending stocks | 2,262 | 2,257 | 1,402 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 15.6% | 15.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% |
Average farm price/bushel | $4.80 | $4.80 | $6.60 | $6.00 | $4.53 | $3.56 |
SOYBEANS | Jul. Proj. | Jun. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/2021 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 83.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 82.7 | 86.7 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 52 | 52 | 49.5 | 51.7 | 51 | 47.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 255 | 230 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Production | 4,300 | 4,510 | 4,276 | 4,465 | 4,216 | 3,552 |
Imports | 20 | 20 | 25 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
Supply, total | 4,575 | 4,760 | 4,576 | 4,738 | 4,761 | 4,476 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,300 | 2,310 | 2,220 | 2,204 | 2,141 | 2,165 |
Exports | 1,850 | 1,975 | 1,980 | 2,158 | 2,261 | 1,682 |
Seed | 101 | 101 | 97 | 102 | 101 | 96 |
Residual | 25 | 25 | 23 | 1 | (4) | 9 |
Use total | 4,276 | 4,411 | 4,320 | 4,464 | 4,504 | 3,952 |
Ending stocks, total | 300 | 350 | 255 | 274 | 257 | 525 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% |
Average farm price/bushel | $12.40 | $12.10 | $14.20 | $13.30 | $10.80 | $8.57 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Jul. Proj. | Jun. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 |
Planted (Million acres) | 49.6 | 49.9 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.7 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 36.8 | 37.4 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 46.1 | 44.9 | 46.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 580 | 598 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Production | 1,739 | 1,665 | 1,650 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 |
Imports | 130 | 135 | 122 | 95 | 100 | 105 |
Supply, total | 2,449 | 2,399 | 2,170 | 2,587 | 2,957 | 3,117 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 977 | 977 | 975 | 972 | 961 | 962 |
Seed | 65 | 65 | 70 | 58 | 64 | 60 |
Feed & Residual | 90 | 70 | 86 | 59 | 93 | 102 |
Domestic, total | 1,132 | 1,112 | 1,131 | 1,088 | 1,117 | 1,123 |
Exports | 725 | 725 | 759 | 800 | 994 | 965 |
Use total | 1,857 | 1,837 | 1,890 | 1,888 | 2,111 | 2,089 |
Ending stocks, total | 592 | 562 | 580 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 31.9% | 30.6% | 30.7% | 37.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% |
Average farm price/bushel | $7.50 | $7.70 | $8.83 | $7.63 | $5.05 | $4.58 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
May 2023 Grain Market Report
CORN | May. Proj. | Est. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2021/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 92.0 | 88.6 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 84.1 | 79.2 | 85.3 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 181.5 | 173.3 | 176.7 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,417 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 13,730 | 13,730 | 15,074 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 40 | 24 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 16,707 | 15,147 | 16,333 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,650 | 5,275 | 5,715 | 5,602 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 37.0% | 38.4% | 37.9% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,735 | 6,680 | 6,767 | 6,472 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,300 | 5,250 | 5,326 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 34.7% | 38.2% | 35.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,385 | 11,955 | 12,484 | 12,704 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,100 | 1,775 | 2,471 | 2,747 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,485 | 13,730 | 14,926 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 2,222 | 1,417 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 15.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $4.80 | $6.60 | $6.00 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | May. Proj. | Est. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.6 | 86.6 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 52.0 | 49.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 215 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,510 | 4,276 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 20 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,745 | 4,571 | 4,738 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,310 | 2,220 | 2,204 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 1,975 | 2.015 | 2,158 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 101 | 102 | 102 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 25 | 19 | 2 | (4) | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,411 | 4,355 | 4,465 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks, total | 355 | 215 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.30 | $14.20 | $13.30 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | May. Proj. | Est. | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 49.9 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 44.7 | 46.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 598 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,659 | 1,650 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 135 | 125 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,393 | 2,473 | 2,587 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 977 | 975 | 972 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 65 | 70 | 58 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 70 | 80 | 59 | 93 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,112 | 1,100 | 1,088 | 1,117 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 725 | 775 | 800 | 994 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,837 | 1,875 | 1,888 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks, total | 556 | 598 | 698 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 30.3% | 31.9% | 37.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $8.00 | $8.85 | $7.63 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
October 2022 Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021/22. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are cut 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80.
Soybeans
Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, down 35 cents.
Wheat
U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower ‘22/23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year. Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983/84. Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72. Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
CORN | Oct. Proj. | Sept. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 88.6 | 88.6 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 80.8 | 80.6 | 85.3 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 172.5 | 172.5 | 176.7 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,377 | 1,525 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 13,895 | 13,944 | 15,074 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 50 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 15,255 | 15,494 | 16,333 | 16,3055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,275 | 5,225 | 5,715 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 38.0% | 37.5% | 37.9% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,725 | 6,755 | 6,769 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,275 | 5,325 | 5,328 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 38.0% | 38.5% | 35.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,000 | 12,000 | 12,484 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,150 | 2,275 | 2,471 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,150 | 14,275 | 14,956 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,172 | 1,219 | 1,377 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.80 | $6.75 | $6.00 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | Oct. Proj. | Sept. Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.6 | 86.6 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 274 | 240 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,313 | 4,375 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,602 | 4,633 | 4,738 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,235 | 2,225 | 2,204 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2,045 | 2.085 | 2,158 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 102 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 20 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,402 | 4,433 | 4,465 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks, total | 200 | 245 | 274 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.00 | $14.35 | $13.30 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Sept. Proj. | Sept. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 45.7 | 47.0 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 46.5 | 47.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 669 | 660 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,650 | 1,783 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 120 | 110 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,439 | 2,553 | 2,587 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 970 | 970 | 972 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 68 | 68 | 60 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 50 | 80 | 86 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,088 | 1,118 | 1,117 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 775 | 825 | 800 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,863 | 1,943 | 1,917 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks, total | 576 | 610 | 669 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 30.9% | 31.4% | 34.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $9.20 | $9.05 | $7.63 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
September Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million. Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is up 10 cents to $6.75.
Soybeans
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production.
Wheat
Wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.
CORN | Sept. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 88.6 | 89.8 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 80.6 | 81.8 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 172.5 | 175.4 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,525 | 1,530 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 13,944 | 14,359 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 15,494 | 15,913 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,225 | 4,325 | 5,625 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 37.5% | 30.1% | 37.2% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,755 | 6,825 | 6,810 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,325 | 5,375 | 5,375 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 38.5% | 37.4% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,000 | 12,150 | 12,415 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,275 | 2,375 | 2,450 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,275 | 14,525 | 14,865 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,219 | 1,388 | 1,510 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 6.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.75 | $6.65 | $5.95 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | Sept. Proj. | Aug Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 87.5 | 88.0 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.6 | 87.2 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 50.5 | 51.9 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 240 | 225 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,375 | 4,531 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,633 | 4,771 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,225 | 2,245 | 2,205 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2.085 | 2,155 | 2,170 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 103 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 21 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,433 | 4,526 | 4,492 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks, total | 200 | 245 | 215 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.35 | $14.35 | $13.35 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Sept. Proj. | Aug. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 47.0 | 47.0 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 47.5 | 47.5 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 660 | 660 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,783 | 1,783 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 110 | 110 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,553 | 2,553 | 2,586 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 970 | 970 | 962 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 68 | 68 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 80 | 80 | 100 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,118 | 1,118 | 1,126 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 825 | 825 | 805 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,943 | 1,943 | 1,931 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks, total | 610 | 610 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 31.4% | 31.4% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $9.00 | $9.25 | $7.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
August 2022 Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged. Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion.
Soybeans
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports. Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre is raised 0.4 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.
Wheat
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million.
CORN | Aug. Proj. | Jul. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 89.8 | 89.9 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 81.8 | 81.9 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 175.4 | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,530 | 1,510 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 14,359 | 14,505 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 15,913 | 16,040 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 4,325 | 5,350 | 5,625 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 30.1 | 36.9% | 37.2% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,825 | 6,820 | 6,810 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,375 | 5,350 | 5,375 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 37.4 | 36.9% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,150 | 12,170 | 12,415 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,450 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,525 | 14,570 | 14,865 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,388 | 1,470 | 1,510 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.65 | $6.65 | $5.95 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | Aug Proj. | Jul. Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 88.0 | 88.3 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 87.2 | 87.5 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.9 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 225 | 215 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,531 | 4.505 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,771 | 4,735 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,245 | 2,245 | 2,205 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2,155 | 2,135 | 2,170 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 103 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 24 | 23 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,526 | 4,505 | 4,492 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks | 245 | 230 | 215 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.35 | $14.40 | $13.35 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Aug. Proj. | July Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 47.0 | 47.1 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.5 | 37.6 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 47.5 | 47.3 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 660 | 660 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,783 | 1,781 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 110 | 110 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,553 | 2,551 | 2,586 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 970 | 964 | 962 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 68 | 68 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 80 | 80 | 100 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,118 | 1,112 | 1,126 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 825 | 800 | 805 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,943 | 1,912 | 1,931 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks | 610 | 639 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 31.4% | 33.4% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $9.25 | $10.50 | $7.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
July 2022 Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
Corn beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021/22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels. The ending stocks-to-use ratio increased from 9.6% to 10.1%.
Soybeans
Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage Report, is down 2.6 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022/23 soybean supplies are reduced 125 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies, and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The ending stock-to-use ratio is down to 5.1% from 6.1% estimated last month.
Wheat
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area. The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices. The ending stock-use-ratio is 33.4% up slightly from 33.3% last month.
CORN | Jul. Proj. | Jun. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 89.9 | 89.5 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 81.9 | 81.7 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177 | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,510 | 1,485 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 14,505 | 14,460 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 16,040 | 15,970 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,350 | 5,350 | 5,625 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 36.9% | 37.0% | 37.2% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,820 | 6,820 | 6,810 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,350 | 5,375 | 5,375 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 36.9% | 37.2% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,170 | 12,170 | 12,415 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,450 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,570 | 14,570 | 14,865 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,470 | 1,400 | 1,510 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.65 | $6.75 | $5.95 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | Jul. Proj. | June Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 88.3 | 91.0 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 87.5 | 90.1 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 215 | 205 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4.505 | 4,640 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,735 | 4,860 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,245 | 2,255 | 2,205 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2,135 | 2,200 | 2,170 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 103 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 23 | 23 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,505 | 4,580 | 4,492 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks | 230 | 280 | 215 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.40 | $14.70 | $13.35 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | July Proj. | June Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 47.1 | 47.4 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.6 | 37.1 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 47.3 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 660 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,781 | 1,737 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 110 | 120 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,551 | 2,512 | 2,586 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 964 | 964 | 962 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 68 | 66 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 80 | 80 | 100 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,112 | 1,110 | 1,126 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 800 | 775 | 805 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,912 | 1,885 | 1,931 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks | 639 | 627 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 33.4% | 33.3% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $10.50 | $10.75 | $7.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
June 2022 Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage Report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021/22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022/23. With no other 2022/23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel.
Soybeans
This month’s projections for 2022/23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices. Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021/22. Soybean exports for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil. With reduced supplies for 2022/23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.
Wheat
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22.
CORN | Jun. Proj. | May. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 89.5 | 89.5 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 81.7 | 81.7 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177 | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,485 | 1,440 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 14,460 | 14,460 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 15,970 | 15,925 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,350 | 5,350 | 5,625 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.2% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,820 | 6,815 | 6,810 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,375 | 5,375 | 5,375 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 37.2% | 37.2% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,170 | 12,165 | 12,435 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,500 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,570 | 14,565 | 14,935 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,400 | 1,360 | 1,440 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.75 | $6.75 | $5.90 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | June Proj. | May Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2021/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 91.0 | 91.0 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 90.1 | 90.1 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 205 | 235 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,640 | 4,640 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,860 | 4,890 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,255 | 2,255 | 2,215 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2,200 | 2,200 | 2,140 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 23 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,580 | 4,580 | 4,472 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks | 280 | 310 | 235 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.70 | $14.40 | $13.25 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | June Proj. | May Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2021/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 47.4 | 47.4 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 46.9 | 46.6 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 655 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,737 | 1,729 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 120 | 120 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,512 | 2,504 | 2,586 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 964 | 964 | 962 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 66 | 66 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 80 | 80 | 100 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,110 | 1,110 | 1,126 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 775 | 775 | 805 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,885 | 1,885 | 1,931 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks | 627 | 619 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 33.3% | 32.8% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $10.75 | $10.75 | $7.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
May 2022 Grain Market Report
Information summarized from the USDA WASDE report
Corn
The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is virtually unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption. Corn feed and residual use is down 4.9 percent relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers, and a decline in grain consuming animal units. U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.
Soybeans
The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021/22. The soybean crop is projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher harvested area. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.89 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2021/22. The U.S. soybean crush for 2022/23 is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021/22 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2021/22 with low soybean meal prices relative to corn. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade near the prior 5-year average. With increased supplies, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million from the revised 2021/22 projection. Despite reduced soybean supplies available for export from South America for the first half of the 2022/23 marketing year, an anticipated record harvest and sharply higher exports beginning in early 2023 is expected to leave the U.S. with a lower share of global trade in 2022/23. U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 310 million bushels, up 75 million from the revised 2021/22 forecast. The 2022/23 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.40 per bushel compared with $13.25 per bushel in 2021/22. Soybean meal prices are forecast down $20 per short ton from 2021/22 to $400 per short ton and soybean oil prices are forecast down 5 cents to average 70 cents per pound, as oilseed and product supplies rebound in foreign markets.
Wheat
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area. The all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8 percent from last year as lower Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offset an increase in White Wheat production. Abandonment for Winter Wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma. Spring Wheat production for 2022/23 is projected to rebound significantly from last year’s drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields. Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1 percent on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are 6 percent lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised SAFP. Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed.
CORN | May. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 89.5 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 81.7 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Beginning stocks | 1,440 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Production | 14,460 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 |
Supply, total | 15,925 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Feed and residual | 5,350 | 5,625 | 5,598 | 5,900 | 5,429 |
Feed % of Production | 37.0% | 37.2% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,815 | 6,810 | 6,470 | 6,286 | 6,793 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,375 | 5,375 | 5,033 | 4,857 | 5,378 |
Ethanol % of Production | 37.2% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
Domestic, total | 12,165 | 12,435 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 |
Exports | 2,400 | 2,500 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 |
Use total | 14,565 | 14,935 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 |
Ending stocks | 1,360 | 1,440 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $6.75 | $5.90 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 |
SOYBEANS | May Proj. | Est | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 91.0 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 90.1 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.5 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Beginning stocks | 235 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Production | 4,640 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 |
Supply, total | 4,890 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Crushings | 2,255 | 2,215 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 |
Exports | 2,200 | 2,140 | 2,261 | 1,682 | 1,752 |
Seed | 102 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 88 |
Residual | 23 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 39 |
Use total | 4,580 | 4,472 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 |
Ending stocks | 310 | 235 | 257 | 525 | 909 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% |
Average farm price/bushel | $14.40 | $13.25 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | May Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/23 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 |
Planted (Million acres) | 47.4 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.1 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 46.6 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Beginning stocks | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Production | 1,729 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 |
Imports | 120 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 135 |
Supply, total | 2,504 | 2,586 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | |||||
Food | 964 | 962 | 961 | 962 | 955 |
Seed | 66 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 |
Feed & Residual | 80 | 100 | 95 | 102 | 88 |
Domestic, total | 1,110 | 1,126 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 |
Exports | 775 | 805 | 992 | 965 | 937 |
Use total | 1,885 | 1,931 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 |
Ending stocks | 619 | 655 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 32.8% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
Average farm price/bushel | $10.75 | $7.70 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
April 2022 Grain Market Report
Information from USDA WASDE report
Corn
There were no changes on the corn supply side from the March 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, there were minor changes but total use and Ending stocks remained the same. Ending stocks are estimated to be 1,440 million bushel, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.6%. December 2022 Corn futures remain in a bullish volatile market with prices increasing from $6.37 on March 9 to a high of $7.18 on April 8 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up. A lower than expected prospective plantings report on March 31 pegged planting at 89.5 million contributed to higher prices for the 2022 crop year.
Soybeans
There were no changes on the soybean supply side from the March 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, export estimates were increased by 25 million bushel, seed was increased by 4 million bushel and the residual estimate was decreased by 3 million bushel. This resulted in a lower estimate of ending stocks at 260 million bushel and a decrease in the stocks-to-use ratio from 6.4% to 5.8%. November 2022 futures prices have been volatile the past month A higher than expected prospective plantings report on March 31 pegged planting at 91 million contributed to a price dip but has since recovered to a high of $14.98 on April 8.
Wheat
On the supply side, import estimates were decreased by 5 million bushel. On the demand side, Feed & Residual was decreased 10 million bushel. Export estimate was decrease by 25 million bushel. These changes increased the ending stocks by 30 million bushel to 678 million bushel and the stocks to use ratio increased from 33.4% to 35.5%. On March 3 & 7, the market was limit up as trading was halted on those days. The market then went limit down on March 8, 9 , & 10. On March 9 &10 there was no trading. The market has declined since then from the $12.50 range to a high of $10.60 on April 8.
CORN | April. Proj. | Feb. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 93.4 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 | 90.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 85.4 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 82.7 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 | 176.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,235 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 | 2,293 |
Production | 15,115 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 | 14,609 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 | 36 |
Supply, total | 16,375 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 | 16,939 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,650 | 5,650 | 5,602 | 5,900 | 5,429 | 5,304 |
Feed % of Production | 37.2% | 37.4% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% | 36.3% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,810 | 6,785 | 6,466 | 6,286 | 6,793 | 7,056 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,375 | 5,350 | 5,028 | 4,857 | 5,378 | 5,605 |
Ethanol % of Production | 35.6% | 35.4% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 37.5% | 38.4% |
Domestic, total | 12,435 | 12,435 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 | 12,361 |
Exports | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 | 2,438 |
Use total | 14,935 | 14,935 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 | 14,798 |
Ending stocks | 1,440 | 1,440 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $5.80 | $5.65 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 | $3.36 |
SOYBEANS | April Proj. | Mar. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 87.2 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 | 90.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 | 89.5 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 | 49.3 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 257 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 | 302 |
Production | 4,435 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 | 4,412 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 22 |
Supply, total | 4,707 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 | 4,735 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,215 | 2,215 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 | 2,055 |
Exports | 2,115 | 2,090 | 2,265 | 1,682 | 1,752 | 2,134 |
Seed | 106 | 102 | 101 | 96 | 88 | 104 |
Residual | 12 | 15 | (4) | 9 | 39 | 5 |
Use total | 4,447 | 4,422 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 | 4,297 |
Ending stocks | 260 | 285 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% | 10.2% |
Average farm price/bushel | $13.25 | $13.25 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 | $9.33 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | April Proj. | Mar. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 46.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 | 46.1 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.2 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 | 37.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 44.3 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 46.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 845 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 | 1,181 |
Production | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 | 1,741 |
Imports | 95 | 100 | 100 | 105 | 135 | 158 |
Supply, total | 2,586 | 2,591 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 | 3,080 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 959 | 959 | 961 | 962 | 955 | 964 |
Seed | 64 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 | 63 |
Feed & Residual | 110 | 110 | 95 | 102 | 88 | 47 |
Domestic, total | 1,123 | 1,133 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 | 1,075 |
Exports | 785 | 810 | 992 | 965 | 937 | 906 |
Use total | 1,908 | 1,943 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 | 1,981 |
Ending stocks | 678 | 648 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 35.5% | 33.4% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $7.60 | $7.30 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 | $4.72 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
March 2022 Grain Market Report
Information from USDA WASDE report
Corn
There were no changes on the corn supply side from the February 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, ethanol estimates increased 25 million bushel and esports increased 75 million bushel for a total demand increase of 100 million bushel. Ending stocks are estimated to be 1,440 million bushel, decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio from 10.4% in February to 9.6% in March. March 2022 Corn futures increased from $6.47 on February 9 to peak at $8.00 on March 4 and settle back to $7.45 March 9 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up.
Soybeans
There were no changes on the soybean supply side from the February 9 WASDE estimates. On the demand side, export estimates were increased by 40 million bushel and the residual estimate was decreased by 1 million bushel. This resulted in a lower estimate of ending stocks at 285 million bushel and a decrease in the stocks-to-use ratio from 7.4% to 6.4%. March 2022 futures price increased dramatically from $15.95 on February 9 to peak at $17.65 on February 24 and settle back to $16.87 on February 9 as extraordinary world events drive market prices up.
Wheat
On the supply side, import estimates were decreased by 5 million bushel. On the demand side, export estimates were decreased 10 million bushel. These changes increased the ending stocks by 5 million bushel to 653 million bushel and the stocks to use ratio increased from 33.4% to 33.8%. However, extraordinary world events drove March futures from $7.85 on February 9 to peak at 14.25 on March 7. On March 3 & 7, the market was limit up as trading was halted on those days. The market then went limit down on March 8, 9 , & 10. On March 9 &10 there was no trading. The market went limit down at the opening. On March 11 the market closed at $10.90 after the wildest ride in history.
CORN | Mar. Proj. | Feb. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 93.4 | 93.4 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 88.9 | 90.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 85.4 | 85.4 | 82.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 82.7 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 177 | 177 | 171.4 | 167.5 | 176.4 | 176.6 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 1,235 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 | 2,293 |
Production | 15,115 | 15,115 | 14,111 | 13,620 | 14,340 | 14,609 |
Imports | 25 | 25 | 24 | 42 | 28 | 36 |
Supply, total | 16,375 | 16,375 | 16,055 | 15,883 | 16,509 | 16,939 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Feed and residual | 5,650 | 5,650 | 5,602 | 5,900 | 5,429 | 5,304 |
Feed % of Production | 37.4% | 37.4% | 39.7% | 43.3% | 37.9% | 36.3% |
Food, seed & industrial | 6,785 | 6,760 | 6,466 | 6,286 | 6,793 | 7,056 |
Ethanol for fuel | 5,350 | 5,325 | 5,028 | 4,857 | 5,378 | 5,605 |
Ethanol % of Production | 35.4% | 35.2% | 35.6% | 35.7% | 37.5% | 38.4% |
Domestic, total | 12,435 | 12,410 | 12,068 | 12,186 | 12,222 | 12,361 |
Exports | 2,500 | 2,425 | 2,753 | 1,777 | 2,066 | 2,438 |
Use total | 14,935 | 14,835 | 14,821 | 13,963 | 14,288 | 14,798 |
Ending stocks | 1,440 | 1,540 | 1,235 | 1,919 | 2,221 | 2,140 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $5.65 | $5.45 | $4.53 | $3.56 | $3.61 | $3.36 |
SOYBEANS | Mar. Proj. | Feb. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 87.2 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 76.1 | 89.2 | 90.2 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.6 | 74.9 | 87.6 | 89.5 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51 | 47.4 | 50.6 | 49.3 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 257 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 | 302 |
Production | 4,435 | 4,435 | 4,216 | 3,552 | 4,428 | 4,412 |
Imports | 15 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 22 |
Supply, total | 4,707 | 4,707 | 4,761 | 4,476 | 4,880 | 4,735 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Crushings | 2,215 | 2,215 | 2,141 | 2,165 | 2,092 | 2,055 |
Exports | 2,090 | 2,050 | 2,265 | 1,682 | 1,752 | 2,134 |
Seed | 102 | 102 | 101 | 96 | 88 | 104 |
Residual | 15 | 16 | (4) | 9 | 39 | 5 |
Use total | 4,422 | 4,382 | 4,504 | 3,952 | 3,971 | 4,297 |
Ending stocks | 285 | 325 | 257 | 525 | 909 | 438 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 22.9% | 10.2% |
Average farm price/bushel | $13.25 | $13.00 | $10.80 | $8.57 | $8.48 | $9.33 |
Corn and soybean crop marketing year begins September 1 and ends on August 31
WHEAT | Mar.Proj. | Feb. Proj. | Est. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Supply and Demand | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | 2017/18 |
Planted (Million acres) | 46.7 | 46.7 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 47.8 | 46.1 |
Harvested (Million acres) | 37.2 | 37.2 | 36.8 | 37.4 | 39.6 | 37.6 |
Bushel yield/harvested acre | 44.3 | 44.3 | 49.7 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 46.4 |
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Beginning stocks | 845 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 | 1,181 |
Production | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,828 | 1,932 | 1,885 | 1,741 |
Imports | 95 | 100 | 100 | 105 | 135 | 158 |
Supply, total | 2,586 | 2,591 | 2,957 | 3,117 | 3,119 | 3,080 |
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS) | ||||||
Food | 959 | 959 | 961 | 962 | 955 | 964 |
Seed | 64 | 64 | 64 | 60 | 59 | 63 |
Feed & Residual | 110 | 110 | 95 | 102 | 88 | 47 |
Domestic, total | 1,133 | 1,133 | 1,120 | 1,123 | 1,102 | 1,075 |
Exports | 800 | 810 | 992 | 965 | 937 | 906 |
Use total | 1,933 | 1,943 | 2,111 | 2,089 | 2,039 | 1,981 |
Ending stocks | 653 | 648 | 845 | 1,028 | 1,080 | 1,099 |
Ending stocks to use ratio | 33.8% | 33.4% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
Average farm price/bushel | $7.50 | $7.30 | $5.05 | $4.58 | $5.16 | $4.72 |
Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31
World Crop Statistics: Ukraine & Russia
There is a lot in the news about the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on world crop economics. It has certainly caused turmoil in crop prices. I have attached a summary that I did of World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) world crop statistics to put things in perspective. I used 2020/2021 statistics for a historical perspective since the war is likely to affect 2021/2022 statistics.
Takeaways: | |
---|---|
Corn | Russia and Ukraine produce only 3.9% of the global corn supply. However, Ukraine exports most of its corn and accounts for 13.1% of global exports. |
Wheat | Russian and Ukraine produce only 14.3% of wheat, yet they account for 27.6% of global exports. |
Soybeans | Russia and Ukraine are insignificant producers and exporters of soybeans. |
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