Stock market data
Updated: October 12, 2021
By Dale Johnson

September Grain Market Summary

Information from USDA WASDE report

Corn

2021/22 harvest acres projection was increased by 600,000 acres and yield estimate was increased by 1.7 bushel per acre. The beginning supply estimate was adjusted up 70 million bushel. The net effect of these adjustments on estimated supply was an increase of 316 million bushel. On the demand side, feed & residual estimate was increased by 75 million bushel and export estimate was increased by 75 million bushel. The result of these supply and demand estimates was an increase in ending stocks of 166 million bushels and an increase in the stocks to use ratio from 8.5% to 9.5%. December futures have declined from a high of $5.94 per bushel in August to close at $5.18 today.

Soybeans

2021/22 harvest acres projection was decreased 300,000 acres and yield estimate was increased by 0.6 bushel per acre . The beginning supply estimate was adjusted up 15 million bushel. Imports were adjusted down 10 million bushel. The net effect of these adjustments on estimated supply was an increase of 41 million bushel. Crushings were adjusted down 25 million bushels and exports were adjusted up 35 million bushel. The Net effect of all adjustments was an increase of 30 million bushels in ending stocks and increase in the stocks to use ratio from 3.5% to 4.2 %. November futures prices on June 10 closed at $14.59. November futures trended down from a high of $13.80 in August to close at $12.86 today.

Wheat

There were small adjustments in and demand categories resulting in a net effect of a 50 million bushel decrease in ending stocks decreasing the ending stocks-to-use ratio from 32.1% in August to 29.8%. December futures have followed corn and soybean prices down from a high of $7.87 per bushel in August to close at $6.89 today.

 

USDA WORLD AGRICULTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES, SUMMARY WASDE-CORN (PAGE 12)

CORN Sep. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 93.3 92.7 90.8 89.7 88.9 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 85.1 84.5 82.5 81.3 81.3 82.7
Bushel yield/harvested acre 176.3 174.6 172 167.5 176.4 176.6
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 1,187 1,117 1,919 2,221 2,140 2,293
Production 14,996 14,750 14,182 13,620 14,340 14,609
Imports 25 25 25 42 28 36
Supply, total 16,208 15,892 16,127 15,883 16,509 16,939
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Feed and residual 5,700 5,625 5,725 5,903 5,429 5,304
Feed % of Production 38.0% 38.1% 40.4% 43.3% 37.9% 36.3%
Food, seed & industrial 6,625 6,625 6,510 6,282 6,793 7,056
Ethanol for fuel 5,200 5,200 5,075 4,852 5,378 5,605
Ethanol % of Production 34.7% 35.3% 35.8% 35.6% 37.5% 38.4%
Domestic, total 12,325 12,250 12,235 12,185 12,222 12,361
Exports 2,475 2,400 2,775 1,778 2,066 2,438
Use total 14,800 14,650 15,010 13,963 14,288 14,798
 
Ending stocks 1,408 1,242 1,117 1,919 2,221 2,140
Ending stocks to use ratio 9.5% 8.5% 7.4% 13.7% 15.5% 14.5%
Average farm price/bushel $5.45 $5.75 $4.40 $3.56 $3.61 $3.36

 

USDA WORLD AGRICULTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES, SUMMARY WASDE-SOYBEANS (PAGE 15)

SOYBEANS Sep. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 87.2 87.6 83.1 76.1 89.2 90.2
Harvested (Million acres) 86.4 86.7 82.3 74.9 87.6 89.5
Bushel yield/harvested acre 50.6 50 50.2 47.4 50.6 49.3
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 175 160 525 909 438 302
Production 4,374 4,339 4,135 3,552 4,428 4,412
Imports 25 35 20 15 14 22
Supply, total 4,574 4,533 4,680 4,476 4,880 4,735
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Crushings 2,180 2,205 2,140 2,165 2,092 2,055
Exports 2,090 2,055 2,140 2,165 2.092 2,055
Seed 104 104 101 96 88 104
Residual 14 14 4 9 39 5
Use total 4,389 4,379 4,505 3,952 3,971 4,297
 
Ending stocks 185 155 175 525 909 438
Ending stocks to use ratio 4.2% 3.5% 3.9% 13.3% 22.9% 10.2%
Average farm price/bushel $12.90 $13.70 $10.90 $8.57 $8.48 $9.33

 

USDA WORLD AGRICULTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES, SUMMARY WASDE-WHEAT (PAGE 11)

WHEAT Sep. Proj. Aug. Proj. Est.      
U.S. Supply and Demand 2021/22 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18
Planted (Million acres) 46.7 46.7 44.3 45.5 47.8 46.1
Harvested (Million acres) 38.1 38.1 36.7 37.4 39.6 37.6
Bushel yield/harvested acre 44.5 44.5 49.7 51.7 47.6 46.4
SUPPLY (MILLION BUSHELS)
Beginning stocks 844 844 1,028 1,080 1,099 1,181
Production 1,697 1,697 1,826 1,932 1,885 1,741
Imports 135 145 100 105 135 158
Supply, total 2,676 2,686 2,954 3,117 3,119 3,080
DEMAND (MILLION BUSHELS)
Food 964 963 961 962 955 964
Seed 62 62 61 60 59 63
Feed & Residual 160 170 97 102 88 47
Domestic, total 1,186 1,195 1,119 1,123 1,102 1,075
Exports 875 875 992 965 937 906
Use total 2,061 2,070 2,110 2,089 2,039 1,981
 
Ending stocks 615 665 844 1,028 1,080 1,099
Ending stocks to use ratio 29.8% 32.1% 40.0% 49.2% 53.0% 55.5%
Average farm price/bushel $6.60 $6.70 $5.05 $4.58 $5.16 $4.72

Wheat crop marketing year begins June 1 and ends on May 31

This article appears on October 2021, Volume 12, Issue 7 of the Agronomy news.

Agronomy News, October 2021, Vol. 12, Issue 7

Agronomy News is a statewide newsletter for farmers, consultants, researchers, and educators interested in grain and row crop forage production systems. This newsletter is published once a month during the growing season and will include topics pertinent to agronomic crop production. Subscribers will receive an email with the latest edition.

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